Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)
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The latest polling in Texas’ pivotal U.S. Senate race shows a dead heat between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.
Dead heat in the U.S. Senate race
By the numbers:
The September Emerson College poll shows a one-point lead for Talarico over Paxton, 47% to 46%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown had the support of 2% of those polled and 4% were undecided.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from Sept. 12–14 and has a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Big picture view:
The Emerson poll is one of the closest polls released recently. Recent polls from AARP Texas and Univison have given Talarico a lead of 4% and 5% respectively. An Emerson poll from August showed Paxton with a 1% lead.
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Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
Did the Republican midterm convention excite voters?
Dig deeper:
A majority of both major parties said the Republican midterm convention made them excited to vote in November.
Among Republicans, 59% said they were more excited to vote after the convention, while 39% said it had no impact and 2% were now less excited to vote.
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On the Democratic side, 53% said the GOP convention made them more excited to vote, while 45% said it had no impact and 2% said they were less excited to vote in November.
Notably, 68% of independent voters said the event made no impact on their excitement to vote, while 28% said it made them more excited and 3% said it made them less excited to vote in November.
Democrats and Republicans agree on Texas’ top issue
What they’re saying:
Democrats and Republicans agree on what they feel is the biggest issue facing the Lone Star State ahead of the midterm elections: the economy.
Of those surveyed, 38% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats said the economy was the top issue facing the state. Thirty percent of independent voters also cited the economy as the state’s top issue.
Immigration (14%), education (12%), healthcare (11%) and threats to democracy (11%) were the other top issues for voters.
Hinojosa’s support increases, still trails Abbott
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa’s support among Texans increased one point, from 45% to 46% since the August Emerson poll. Her incumbent opponent, Gov. Greg Abbott’s support remained steady at 49%. Libertarian Pat Dixon garnered 2% of voters’ support, while 4% remain undecided.
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