HOUSTON – Colorado State University’s latest seasonal update trimmed its forecast from the April outlook.
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The team now expects 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, down from its earlier prediction of 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The updated outlook reflects increasing confidence that atmospheric conditions will become less favorable for widespread tropical development.
El Niño taking control
The primary reason for the downgrade is the anticipated transition toward El Niño conditions during the heart of hurricane season. El Niño tends to strengthen upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, increasing vertical wind shear that can disrupt developing tropical systems. CSU researchers also noted that sea surface temperatures in portions of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are running cooler than average, further reducing the odds of an especially active season.
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In this NOAA GOES-East satellite handout image, Hurricane Dorian tracks towards the Florida coast taken at 13:20Z September 1, 2019 in the Atlantic Ocean.
Don’t let your guard down
While the seasonal outlook has become less aggressive, CSU continues to stress that seasonal forecasts do not predict where storms will track. The researchers are forecasting a below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls in the United States and Caribbean, but remind residents that preparedness remains essential because one storm can define an entire season for a community in its path.
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